Why Can't Chile Become An AI/Copper Darling?
May 7, 2024
Chile is by far the largest copper producer in the world. And the price of copper has risen significantly in recent months!
However, the Chile ETF ($ECH) in USD is still trading near an all time low! This could perhaps be an interesting investment opportunity via call options or digital options, especially if the following things are taken into account:
1) Very favorable valuation
2) The mining sector generates 13-15% of Chile's GDP. Copper is by far the largest sub-sector, i.e. a higher copper price has a direct impact on GDP!
If the copper price continues to rise, mining companies will invest even more money in capacity expansions! However, before investing aggressively in new projects (greenfield projects), all possible brownfield investment opportunities (=> capacity expansion of existing mines and near field projects) will be prioritized/exhausted!
Because (a) the capital requirement is significantly lower, (b) it is easier & faster to obtain permits, (c) the returns on the capital invested are higher and (d) the risk is lower as the deposit is already known!
What does this mean for Chile?
A disproportionately high level of investment is likely to be made in Chilean copper mines over the next few years, as highly profitable and relatively low-risk brownfield expansions can be carried out here! => a lot of money will flow into Chile and boost its domestic economy!
3) The world is slowly realizing how much electricity (=> copper) we need for the energy transition and the AI boom! Why can't Chile also become an AI darling from an investor's perspective?
4) The Chile ETF continues to price in the current government's shift to the left, even though (a) the current president has a bottomless approval rating and (b) his constitutional change has failed.
The current development in Argentina makes a shift to the left in Chile even more unrealistic (=> local competition)
All in all: The rate of change in Chile should currently be positive, but this is not yet reflected in the currency and the stock market.)